KEYNOTE ADDRESS BY
YB SENATOR TENGKU DATO’ SRI UTAMA ZAFRUL TENGKU ABDUL AZIZ
Minister of Finance Malaysia
BURSA MALAYSIA FORUM
Menang Bersama: Rebuilding Malaysia’s Economy Together
Tuesday, 2 February 2021
4:00pm – 5:00pm
SALUTATIONS
Y. Bhg. Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar, Chairman, Bursa Malaysia;
Y. Bhg. Datuk Muhamad Umar Swift, CEO, Bursa Malaysia;
Ladies and gentlemen and esteemed guests, fellow Malaysians watching wherever you are;
INTRODUCTION
1. A very good afternoon to everyone. Firstly, thank you for making time to join this session today, and many thanks to Bursa Malaysia for making this happen.
2. Since my appointment as Finance Minister, I have been engaging with various organisations and media outlets, both domestic and international. In more forward-looking discussions, we talked of what it means for Malaysia in rebuilding her economy—not just merely reconstructing but building it to be better and more resilient than what it was before.
3. Throughout this COVID-19 pandemic, leaders all over the world talk about the need for their people to set aside their differences, do their part and unite in the face of this ongoing threat. In Malaysia, we witnessed the rise of hashtags like “kita jaga kita” or “menang bersama”. The pandemic has certainly tested our ideals of normality, public life and social togetherness.
4. The COVID-19 pandemic has been the definitive global theme in 2020, causing most governments to deal with both public health and economic crises at the same time. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy contracted by 3.5% in 2020, with an estimated loss of USD22 trillion from 2020 to 2025. More worryingly, approximately 90 million people are expected to enter extreme poverty by the end of this year, reversing growth trends seen over the past two decades. This will increase inequality in many countries, with the risk of uneven recovery, or perhaps even a “K-shaped” recovery.
5. Recently, the World Economic Forum said that the contraction in growth for 2020 is estimated to have wiped out 495 million jobs, or at least 14% of the world’s entire workforce. As a result, governments globally poured in approximately USD14 trillion to save lives and livelihood – protecting jobs, businesses, as well as people’s means to earn a living. This has led to an increase in global public debt which is estimated to reach 100% of GDP in 2020.
FIGHTING THE COVID-19 WAR: THE JOURNEY THUS FAR
My fellow Malaysians,
6. It has been a year since this nation and the world started
experiencing this unprecedented pandemic, at least in recent history. Many uncertainties still linger: when will the pandemic end? How can we expedite herd immunity? Why is today’s ‘lockdown’ not as stringent as the one we had in March 2020? And, in terms of the economy, where do we go from here?
7. The impact of this pandemic is beyond anything we talked about a year ago. Although with the impending vaccine arrival, we can see a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel, we have still some way to go in dealing with the full extent of its impact. Amidst this sea of unknowns, there are a few facts that we know:
8. Fourth, investors’ confidence continued to be reflected in our capital and financial markets, which showed encouraging performance under an extremely challenging 2020. Last year:
9. Fifth, our banks, supported by their sound capital buffers, years of prudent lending practice and sound risk management policies are poised to assist people and businesses to manage their borrowings. In 2020, we saw 7.7 million individuals and more than 240,000 businesses benefiting from the assistance either through loan moratoriums or restructuring. Various forms of repayment assistance continue to be offered. To date, more than 1.3 million borrowers have applied and received such assistance, with an approval rate of 95% for individual borrowers and 99% for SME borrowers.
10. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, everyone can see that it is not just the Government, but also the many Malaysians and the private sector that have stepped up to responsibly comply with public health measures. Admittedly, as a nation, we have had our challenges and setbacks, but we also have a lot to be thankful for. In times of darkness, let our fighting spirit be the beacons lighting our forward path, so we can win this COVID-19 war together. This is exemplified in concerned individuals, civil society organisations and NGOs all over the country joining hands helping fellow Malaysians impacted by the pandemic, whether through supply of PPEs, or in delivering food and supplies to the displaced and dispossessed during lockdowns or when the floods hit.
11. This was also evident from my recent visit to various districts in Pahang over the weekend. The plight of flood victims has been alleviated by the actions of kind-hearted fellow Malaysians and proactive NGOs. For that, we thank you. Surely, we cannot successfully rebuild the nation and economy if the Government were to work at it alone.
12. Yet, we must remain vigilant of the unscrupulous few that seek to take advantage of the situation. There are emerging issues that require our immediate attention: the rise in scams, hacking, fake news and misinformation that is meant to break up our cooperative spirit. Let us not fall prey to these attempts that seek to undermine, derail, or distract us from our efforts to heal the nation and our economy.
SAVING LIVES AND LIVELIHOODS: A TOUGH BALANCING ACT
Ladies and Gentlemen,
13. These are not our brightest of days, but I strongly believe we will get through it and see better times – recovering faster and in a more sustainable way. From the time we realised the gravity of this pandemic, this Government also realised that there is no single solution in winning the COVID-19 war. Hence, today I would like explain where we are in this pandemic, and what the Government has done, and is planning to do in protecting the people, and limiting further socio-economic fallout.
14. We all had been through a full lockdown or MCO 1.0 in March 2020, among the strictest according to global studies. We knew it cost the economy RM2.4 billion per day, and not to mention the mental and emotional stress of millions of people being confined in their homes for long periods of time. Even domestic violence and child abuse cases had been shown to have increased during lockdowns. It also led to an unemployment rate of 5.3% in May. As a result, our second quarter GDP for 2020 contracted by 17.2%, the worst amongst ASEAN nations.
15. For the Government, to decide on the exact nature of a ‘lockdown’ is never easy. Currently, there has been plenty of debate on whether our country should go into a full lockdown. Those in favour of raising the level of restrictions argue that we should, to break the spread of transmission and save more lives. On the other hand, those against further restrictions argue that the economic harm from a stricter ‘lockdown’ outweigh the benefits of slowing the spread of the virus.
16. It has been highly challenging to balance the safety of people’s lives, and the security of their livelihoods. It involves many factors, requiring careful deliberation and thought, and constant review as the situation evolves. We must also realise that there are harms that may be difficult to predict. The economy does not operate at the flick of a switch. There is no “turning it off”, and then “turning it back on” as we see fit. Livelihoods depend on it. On this note, we must look at this issue squarely in the face and ask ourselves with honesty: what is the real impact of our losses if we had a stricter ‘lockdown’ this time around?
17. It is inevitable that policy makers and market regulators talk about the economic effect of the ‘lockdown’ from a macro perspective. But behind all the numbers, are real people who are facing real survival issues as they face a tighter ‘lockdown’. This is especially true for the micro and small businesses: the restaurant operators, food stall owners, tailors, barbers, fruit sellers, laundry operators and countless more – people who draw income from daily demand for their goods and services. This is simply about the reality of survival – the ability to put food on the table for the family each and every day. For them, the balancing act is just a theory and holds little meaning in their quest for daily survival.
18. Who is to say one occupation is more essential than the other? The economy is an intricate supply chain – one business relies on another and is linked to several others in direct or indirect ways. For the Government, building back better means a revamped policy that treats hard working Malaysians and their families as essential at ALL times, not just during a crisis. ALL types of jobs are essential because they provide food on the table, a roof over people’s heads and most importantly, a sense of purpose and dignified existence for all of us, without which individuals and families could go down a path of not just financial ruin, but also social despair.
19. There has also been a lot of talk about FDIs lately. One of the key factors in deciding where to invest is consistency of policies. Deciding to open and close factories and offices without clear guidelines will only damage investor confidence.
20. My point is to illustrate that policy making in managing this crisis extends beyond just the public health viewpoint. There are those who believe that a tighter MCO will save more lives. For anyone concerned about losing a loved one to COVID-19, this may seem like the only fact that matters. However, as a society, it is important for us to be clear about what exactly the outcomes and alternatives are.
21. To me the biggest lesson from MCO 1.0 is our acknowledgement that a ‘lockdown’ and ensuring the economy survives are not and must not be mutually exclusive. Our SME sector, for example, forms the backbone of the economy, employing over seven million Malaysians, and contributing nearly 40% to the GDP. Over 70% of our SMEs posted a loss in 2020. It goes without saying that a strict ‘lockdown’ will hit our SMEs, or over 900,000 businesses nationwide. Within this are small and micro-business owners whose livelihoods are immediately affected by even a day of ‘lockdown’, what more a 14-day shutdown?
BUILDING ON WHAT WORKS, AND KEEPING PLANS DYNAMIC
My fellow Malaysians,
22. This pandemic is a complex animal requiring a combo of holistic solutions that must ensure both public health and the economy can thrive. To that end, the Government has been working hard with all parties to ensure that we can win on both fronts, by working on various solutions in tandem. These include:
BUILDING RESILIENCE: LONGER-TERM MEASURES
Ladies and Gentlemen,
23. What I just listed down are the major short- and medium-term
strategic solutions and measures that the Government has rolled out, through four comprehensive economic stimulus packages valued at RM305 billion, or approximately 20% of GDP. These economic stimulus packages are expected to have contributed up to four percentage points to our GDP, setting the country firmly on its recovery path, with a projected growth target of 6.5% - 7.5 % in 2021.
24. This year, we have our largest ever national budget worth RM322.5 billion. And now, to bridge the gap between deploying immediate support to those affected by the floods and MCO, as well as faster implementation of the Budget 2021 measures, we have announced the RM15-billion PERMAI Assistance Package.
25. But we also realise that there are structural issues that cannot be solved overnight, that require deeper thought, consideration and longer-term planning. This is where our Twelfth Malaysia Plan and Budget 2022 come in. These include:
26. This list that I just shared is non-exhaustive. I can go on with many more examples but let me just say that from MOF’s solutioning viewpoint, and myself as Finance Minister, my team and I are looking at all these ideas, and more, in a holistic manner. We have even started working on fresh ideas for Budget 2022 even as we roll out Budget 2021 measures. All these efforts must happen in tandem to ensure our future measures are not only strategic, but also targeted, on-point and outcome-based.
ATTRACTING FDI: A CONTINUOUS QUEST
My fellow Malaysians,
27. Ultimately, the proof of the initiatives introduced is whether they will
generate the growth that we are trying to achieve. For this year alone, people might call our GDP growth projection at 6.5% – 7.5% optimistic. For the sceptics out there, please also look at IMF and the World Bank figures. With all these measures combined, our growth forecast is very much in line with projections by agencies such as the IMF and World Bank at 7.0% and 6.7%, respectively.
28. In fact, IMF’s projection of 7% growth expected for Malaysia in 2021 is higher than the ASEAN-5 combined (5.2%), and trailing only behind China (at 8.1%) and India (at 11.5%). As per its latest report in January 2021, IMF is projecting that Malaysia will register the third highest GDP growth among all countries globally in 2021.
29. These promising numbers for our country are also premised on the fact that our robust growth will be supported by the competitiveness of our economy and diversity in exports. For instance, in December 2020, we recorded our highest exports of more than RM95 billion. This is ten percent higher from a year ago, and exceeded forecasts by analysts that anticipated a 6.6% increase, as surveyed by Reuters. Moreover, it was also higher than the 4.3% growth posted in November 2020.
30. In terms of FDI, the Government acknowledges the challenging and highly competitive landscape we are facing. As COVID-19 pandemic disrupts supply chains globally, to capture reshoring and relocation of MNCs, the Government has introduced various tax and investment incentives announced under PENJANA and Budget 2021, as well as measures to ensure seamless facilitation of investors such as the establishment of the Project Acceleration and Coordination Unit (PACU), and various online platforms such as the i-Incentive. Nevertheless, we continue to look for ways to improve our tax and investment incentives to ensure Malaysia remains competitive as an investment destination.
31. As a result of all these measures, investors’ confidence in Malaysia can be seen in terms of the approved investments during the first nine months of 2020, which stood at RM110 billion, 40% of which was FDI. These investments involved over 2,900 projects, with the creation of close to 65,000 jobs. Within those numbers, we have high-end, high-technology MNCs that have set up shop or increased their investments such as Smith and Nephew, Dexcom, Bosch and Western Digital, to name a few.
32. In addition to that, MIDA has also identified 240 high-profile foreign investment projects with a combined potential investment value of close to RM82 billion. These include sectors such as Electrical & Electronics; Machinery & Metal; Life Sciences & Medical Technology; Chemical & Advanced Materials; Transportation Technology; and Food Technology & Resource Based Industries. These projects are anticipated to materialise this year. Moreover, approximately RM48 billion worth of potential investments into the country are currently being evaluated. These projects, once approved, are expected to be implemented within the year 2021 to 2022.
33. Our work continues by maintaining our competitiveness as a preferred investment destination, improving the ease of doing business, as well as further strengthening our institutional and governance framework. This includes formulating a national investment strategy to attract high-quality investments that can meaningfully enhance our productive capacity, create high-skilled jobs, promote technology transfer and foster domestic linkages that will also benefit our home-grown companies.
CONCLUSION
Ladies and gentlemen, fellow Malaysians,
34. Before I end, I think it is important to emphasise two important points:
35. On that note, I would like to again thank Bursa Malaysia for their effort in organising this forum. Please continue to adhere to SOPs, take good care of yourself and your loved ones and stay safe.
Thank you.